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Global uncertainty and the search for protection
In recent months, the global economy has entered a phase of significant instability. Geopolitical tension, political crises and the increasing use of economic leverage as a tool for international pressure are prompting investors and governments to strengthen their risk-protection strategies. In this context, safe-haven assets are once again taking centre stage, along with interest in alternative markets to the United States.
Gold at record highs
The most obvious sign of this trend comes from the gold market. At the end of January, prices exceeded $5,500 per troy ounce for the first time, reaching a new all-time high. After the peak, there was a short-term correction, with a decline of nearly 6%, but the underlying trend remains strongly bullish. Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained about 30%, marking its best monthly performance in the past forty years. Demand is being driven by international crises, from the Arctic to the Middle East, as well as tension in Iran and political changes in Latin America.
The role of central banks
According to various market analyses, including those by Goldman Sachs, the gold rush could continue in the coming years, with further increases expected by 2026. A key factor is the action of central banks, which are increasing their gold reserves at an unprecedented rate. Average monthly purchases have reached around 60 tons, compared with 17 tons in 2022, reinforcing gold’s role as a defensive asset.
Beyond gold: silver and the Swiss franc
The climate of risk aversion is also supporting other safe-haven assets. Silver prices have reached a record high of $120 per ounce, while the Swiss franc has strengthened to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in ten years. These movements confirm global investors’ search for stability.
Cryptocurrencies and precious metals
Demand for gold is no longer driven solely by traditional market participants. Among the major buyers is also Tether, one of the leading groups in the cryptocurrency sector. When gold prices were below $4,000 per ounce, the company already held 116 tons of the precious metal. At current prices, the value of these reserves exceeds $5 billion. In the final quarter of 2025 alone, Tether purchased 27 tons of gold bars, reaching levels comparable to those of the Central Bank of Brazil.
The United States at the centre of the tension
Another factor behind the rush toward safe-haven assets is the growing perception of the United States as a source of instability. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Washington has intensified its use of economic and technological power, imposing tariffs and conditions even on its long-standing partners. A notable example is South Korea, which has been hit with new 25% tariffs on exports to the United States after parliament failed to approve a trade agreement signed in 2025.
The dominant role of the dollar
This strategy is made possible by the central role of the dollar, which remains the main global reserve and trading currency. Governments, businesses and central banks continue to use it for international trade, debt servicing and financial crisis management. As a result, a significant portion of global liquidity is reinvested in U.S. markets, particularly in U.S. Treasuries and financial instruments listed on Wall Street.
New trade routes and diversification
In an attempt to reduce their dependence on the United States, several countries are exploring new trade strategies. This is the direction taken by the agreements recently signed by the European Union with Mercosur, which hascreated the world’s largest free-trade area with around 700 million consumers and with India, it will ensure a significant reduction in tariffs on a market of over two billion people. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is set to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The limits of the end of the dollar
Despite these signs of diversification, a rapid abandoning of the dollar appears unlikely. There are few credible alternatives: China and India lack financial markets with the same depth and liquidity as the United States, while their currencies are not fully convertible. The euro could be a possible alternative only if there were greater European political integration and the creation of a common market for government bonds, as suggested by economist Olivier Blanchard.
The weight of U.S. investments
Meanwhile, many investors remain heavily exposed to the U.S. financial system. European institutions hold approximately $8 trillion in U.S. assets, nearly twice as much as the rest of the world. Of this amount, about $3.6 trillion is invested in U.S. Treasury securities, equivalent to one third of U.S. foreign debt.
Public debt and future risks
The real critical issue remains U.S. public debt. Over the past four years, interest payments on federal debt have doubled, reaching $1.2 trillion, exceeding the entire Pentagon budget. When state and local governments are taken into account, the total interest burden reaches 47% of the GDP, the highest level since the late 1990s. In 2026, the United States will need to refinance around $9 trillion in debt amid growing uncertainty.
Markets as the last line of defence
This is also why the Trump administration is seeking tighter control over the Federal Reserve, with the aim of ensuring the purchase of the debt needed to support fiscal policies. However, as noted by The Economist, truly challenging the role of the dollar would require inflicting far more severe damage to the global economy. In that case, it would be the financial markets rather than politics that would intervene. And, at least for now, they remain the only real line of defence.
