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Geopolitics and markets: a new global balance
The global economic system is undergoing a phase of profound transformation. Wars, trade tariffs, technological innovation and monetary policies are reshaping international trade, commodity markets and global financial flows.
According to analyses by the McKinsey Global Institute, we are not facing deglobalisation but rather a new setting of globalisation, characterised by more regionalised value chains and new economic balances.
In this scenario, international investments, supply chains and capital flow are creating significant opportunities but also new risks for businesses and investors.
The new geography of international trade
In recent years, global trade has been affected by growing geopolitical tension and tariff policies adopted by the world’s major economies.
The rise in US tariffs, to their highest levels since the Second World War, has altered international trade routes. Part of the trade between the United States and China has gradually shifted toward alternative markets.
Despite this, world trade continues to grow alongside global production. The real change concerns the geography of trade, increasingly oriented towards countries with shared economic and strategic interests.
Emerging economies taking a leading role
The restructuring of global value chains is fuelling the rise of emerging economies.
Countries such as India, Brazil and the economies of Southeast Asia and Latin America in general are strengthening their position in international trade. The ASEAN area is establishing itself as a global manufacturing hub, while India is increasing its influence in technological production, particularly in the smartphone sector.
This evolution highlights the emergence of new global industrial hubs destined to influence future economic balances.
It is no coincidence that Chinese state-owned enterprises have begun construction of the largest port in the Americas in Peru, near the capital and have long since established their presence in Africa as well.
China: the role of the “Factory of Factories”
Despite trade tensions, China maintains a central position in global supply chains.
The country has specialised in the production of intermediate goods, machinery and industrial components essential to industries spread across the globe. For this reason, many analysts describe China as a true “factory for factories,” capable of supporting interconnected global production systems.
Artificial intelligence and technology driving trade
Technological innovation today is one of the main drivers of international trade.
The spread of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digital infrastructure is increasing global demand for:
- semiconductors
- servers and data centres
- advanced electronic components
As a result, major Asian technology hubs are playing an increasingly central role in global trade flows, confirming the growing importance of digital economy.
Raw materials are becoming increasingly strategic
Industrial and technological transformation is reinforcing the strategic value of raw materials.
The growth of digital infrastructure and energy technology requires increasing quantities of:
- industrial metals
- critical minerals
- agricultural products
In this context, many Latin American economies are consolidating their role as global suppliers of natural resources, while trade with Europe in high value-added technological sectors is increasing.
Global financial flows in transformation
Alongside international trade, global financial flows are also changing.
In recent years, international transactions have slowed down due to:
- geopolitical tension
- armed conflicts
- restrictive monetary policies
- rising interest rates aimed at combating inflation
These factors have temporarily reduced the liquidity available for global investments.
The future of international capital
According to several analysts, the current slowdown represents a transitional phase. Capital is progressively shifting towards:
- high-growth emerging economies
- new technological and industrial hubs
- markets with expanding supply chains
Global investment is therefore following the same trends that are redefining world trade.
A new phase of globalisation
Evidence suggests that globalisation is not disappearing but evolving into a more polycentric and multipolar system.
International trade, raw materials and financial flows have now merged into a more complex economic model, in which new players stand alongside traditional industrial powers.
For businesses, investors and institutions, understanding these changes will be essential in adapting to a rapidly evolving global economic scenario.
