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What the WTO Global Trade Outlook report forecasts
The WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (March 2026) confirms that international merchandise trade grew by +4.6% in 2025, well above expectations.
Growth was driven by global demand for AI-related products — semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment — and by the frontloading of imports in North America ahead of new tariffs.
Asia accounted for approximately 71% of overall trade growth during the year.
For 2026, the WTO projects a significant slowdown: merchandise trade growth will fall to 1.9%, recovering to 2.6% in 2027.
Services trade is forecast to grow 4.8% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.
The main downside risks are energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which threatens strategic shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing uncertainty over global trade policy.
The share of world trade governed by the most-favoured-nation (MFN) clause has fallen to 72%.
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WTO — Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026 · wto.org
