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The months of April and May are emerging as a critical phase for global economic balances, not only in terms of macroeconomic performance, but above all for the overall resilience of international financial flows.
An analysis by the GeoEconomics Center of the Atlantic Council highlights, in a measured yet unequivocal manner, how the issue of cross-border money transfers has forcefully returned to the forefront during the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings.
This is a broad domain encompassing private investment, financing for entrepreneurial projects, and, more generally, the mechanisms underpinning capital circulation.
The renewed attention is driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of global shocks, which are putting significant pressure on the core dynamics of global financial flows.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, while not explicitly focusing on these flows in a systematic way, indirectly reflects their importance: financial transfer dynamics influence growth projections, downward revisions, and assessments of economic vulnerability.
What is happening in practice?
The interaction between geopolitical tensions — particularly the conflict with Iran — persistent volatility in energy markets, and a general tightening of global financial conditions is generating cascading effects.
Foreign direct investment is becoming more cautious, financing for entrepreneurial projects is declining, and the cost of capital is rising, with simultaneous effects on both domestic demand and future productive capacity.
The ongoing energy crisis is further amplifying these dynamics. Rising oil prices are rapidly feeding into the cost of essential goods, eroding purchasing power and narrowing the margins for new investment.
In this context, financing entrepreneurial initiatives is also becoming more difficult: higher perceived risk, reduced capital availability, and more restrictive access conditions are constraining innovation and development.
The question of policy responses therefore becomes increasingly urgent.
A growing consensus is taking shape that an approach limited to macroeconomic stabilization alone is no longer sufficient to address a crisis affecting the entire system of global financial flows.
Ensuring economic resilience will require an integrated strategy: facilitating money transfers by reducing transaction costs, supporting productive investment, and creating favorable conditions for financing entrepreneurial projects.
This implies closer coordination among the IMF, the World Bank, and multilateral development banks, as well as more active engagement from the United Nations, the private sector — particularly actors in digital payments and blockchain technologies — and civil society. Only through a systemic approach will it be possible to preserve the continuity of capital flows, sustain growth, and contain the effects of current global turbulence.
