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Introduction: a fragile balance
In recent years, the global economy has seemed to be hanging in a delicate balance. Signs of growth are visible, but they often rest on shaky foundations.
Behind the world’s positive GDP figures lies a reality of widening inequalities and increasingly concentrated wealth.
Apparent growth and real inequality
Reports from international institutions such as the IMF, OECD and World Economic Forum paint a clear picture:
the growth in GDP does not correspond to a real improvement in collective well-being.
While higher incomes fuel consumption and financial markets, the middle class and lower-income families see their purchasing power eroded by inflation.
The result is an illusion of widespread prosperity—sustained only by a privileged minority.
The “low hire, low fire” Economy
In the United States, as pointed out by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the economy is experiencing a “low hire, low fire” phase: fewer people are being hired, fewer people are being fired.
Immigration restrictions make it harder to find labour, while salaries are stagnant.
Low-income workers receive only minimal increases in salary and inflation eats away further at their purchasing power.
Fiscal policies tend to favour the wealthier classes, reducing social support and widening inequality.
Speculative bubbles and the illusion of prosperity
Bubbles no longer concern only traditional financial markets: today, many speak of an artificial intelligence bubble – but it’s not the only one.
In Europe, the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have weakened economies, while in China, the real estate sector is generating colossal losses.
In the United States, concerns about energy companies with no revenue but with billion-dollar valuations are growing.
The Oklo case and the ai bubble
A striking example is Oklo, a startup backed by Sam Altman, which reached a valuation of $26 billion in just one year, without having a revenue or clients.
It symbolizes the speculative enthusiasm surrounding the artificial intelligence sector, now valued at over one trillion dollars in total, despite the lack of real profits.
Other less visible bubbles
According to The Wall Street Journal, the energy sector is also experiencing its own bubble: companies with no real production but with a market capitalisation exceeding $145 billion.
Analysts warn that a correction is inevitable.
A single interest rate hike or sudden technological breakthrough could destabilise the entire industry.
When bubbles accelerate progress
History, however, shows that bubbles do not bring only crises.
The internet bubble of the early 2000s caused huge losses but also drove innovation and new opportunities.
Today, the race towards artificial intelligence may follow the same pattern: behind the illusion lies the potential for genuine progress.
Conclusion: between progress and illusion
We live in an era where the line between innovation and economic illusion is becoming increasingly blurred.
Behind the façade of a seemingly solid economy lie structural fragilities and social imbalances.
Like grand cardboard backdrops, global markets appear prosperous only from afar.
Up close, the real question is: Is today’s economic progress real or just an illusion?
Clarissa Van Vuuren
Honorary President
