GOLD ABOVE $4,000: A HISTORIC TURNING POINT

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Gold above $4,000: a new record and global implications

At the beginning of October 2025, the gold market reached a historic milestone: for the first time ever, the price exceeded $4,000 per troy ounce, doubling its value in just twelve months.
According to data from the London Bullion Market Association, the average price during the first week of October was around €106 per gram, with peaks reaching €106.44 per gram.
It was an unexpected result that analysts had anticipated only for mid-2026 but which has been brought forward by a combination of economic, geopolitical and monetary factors.

Gold: from safe haven to strategic asset

Traditionally considered the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold has also taken on a central role in the context of rising stock markets, fuelled by AI-driven euphoria and expansive fiscal policies in the United States.

In 2025, Washington adopted a reflationary strategy, implementing fiscal and monetary stimuli despite GDP growth of 3.8%. The new budget law extended the 2017 tax cuts, increasing deductions and benefits for families and businesses while reducing social spending and renewable energy incentives.
This created an ambiguous economic picture with tax relief on one hand and growing deficit on the other.

U.S. debt and the AI bubble risk

U.S. federal debt surpassed $28.7 trillion in April 2025, while there are growing concerns that the enthusiasm surrounding AI could evolve into a speculative bubble. The Federal Reserve is under pressure: it must curb inflation on one hand while facing political demands to cut rates and ease the cost of debt on the other.

According to Goldman Sachs, if even 1% of private holders of U.S. bonds shifted their investments to gold, the price could rise to $5,000 per ounce.

Gold reserves and de-dollarization

Globally, gold is also being driven by the accumulation strategies of central banks. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the freezing of Moscow’s assets, many countries have accelerated gold purchases to reduce dependence on the dollar and the euro.

According to the World Gold Council, in the two-year period 2024–2025 official purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes per year for the third consecutive year, with China, India and Turkey leading the way.
The European Central Bank confirmed that gold now represents nearly 20% of global reserves, consolidating its position as the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar.

Gold as a barometer of global finance

The use of the dollar as a geopolitical lever by Washington has accelerated the de-dollarization process. More and more governments and institutional investors view gold not only as a safe haven but also as protection against political and financial instability.

In this context, gold stands out not only as a symbol of security but also as a barometer of the global economic system’s fragility, offering investors a key reference point to assess market resilience.