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THE FUTURE TRAPPED IN FOSSILS
Despite global efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption, coal remains one of the most sought-after and heavily utilized energy sources in 2024, driving concerns over sustainability and emissions.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal demand continues to rise, raising doubts about the possibility of phasing out this resource anytime soon.
In 2024, global coal sales reached 8,770 million tons, surpassing the 8,680 million tons sold in 2023. This increase is equivalent to the combined demand of Japan and the United States, two of the world’s largest coal consumers.
Even more noteworthy is the record in electricity production from coal, which hit 10,700 terawatt-hours, reinforcing coal’s central role in the global energy market.
According to IEA projections, coal demand is expected to continue growing at least until 2027, driven primarily by China, India, and ASEAN countries, which collectively account for over 75% of global coal consumption.
This trend raises critical questions about the feasibility of rapidly replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy in the short term.
Historians Adam Tooze and Jean-Baptiste Fressoz challenge the idea that energy transitions involve the straightforward replacement of fossil fuels with renewables. Instead, history suggests:
- Coal did not replace wood but coexisted with it.
- The arrival of oil and gas did not eliminate coal.
This historical perspective highlights that the energy transition requires a more radical break from past trends to avoid merely accumulating new energy sources rather than replacing old ones.
Coal remains a dominant energy source in 2024, challenging hopes for a rapid transition to renewables. If history teaches us that energy sources tend to accumulate rather than be replaced, then achieving a true shift in energy consumption will require bold and transformative actions.
