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A new balance on the oil market
For years OPEC has been the key stabilizing force on the international oil market. Today, however, a new powerhouse is emerging with significant impact: South America.
Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and Argentina are transforming the global energy map thanks to offshore oil fields and unconventional resources capable of guaranteeing competitive supplies for decades to come.
Projections indicate that global oil demand will reach its peak around 2030, surpassing 100 million barrels per day which will remain high until 2040. In this context, South America’s expanding production capacity becomes strategic for offsetting the decline in U.S. shale oil and mature reserves elsewhere.
Brazil: the deepwater leader
Brazil is at the centre of the region’s energy revolution thanks to its pre-salt reserves located in ultra-deep waters.
Projects such as Lula and Búzios have already reached record output levels under Petrobras’ leadership, supported by new platforms and advanced technology.
With some of the most competitive extraction costs in the world, Brazil is emerging as one of the main pillars of global oil supply.
Guyana: the fastest-growing producer in the sector
Guyana is the most astonishing growth case in the global energy landscape.
In just a few years, it has gone from a marginal player to a major force: ExxonMobil-led projects have pushed production to more than 770,000 barrels per day, with forecasts to exceed one million by 2027.
Thanks to new FPSOs and the development of additional offshore oil fields, the country is on track to become the world’s most significant oil & gas producer on a per-capita basis.
Argentina: the potential of Vaca Muerta and the role of natural gas
Argentina is betting on the strength of the Vaca Muerta basin, one of the largest unconventional oil reserves in the world.
Production has grown rapidly, supported by international investment and a reduction in operational costs. However, transport infrastructure still limits full exploitation of its potential.
Meanwhile, the natural gas sector is experiencing strong expansion: the country aims to become a strategic LNG exporter, strengthening its role in South America’s gas geopolitics.
Opportunities and risks for investors
The continent offers competitive barrels, abundant reserves and long-term growth prospects. However, some challenges remain: project delays, regulatory uncertainty and a lack of infrastructure may hinder production momentum.
Nonetheless, the experience gained in offshore production and the growing interest of international investors make South America a key area for global energy market stability.
Conclusion: a new global energy hub
The future of the oil market will no longer be determined solely by OPEC.
Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are reshaping global dynamics, becoming central players in the new phase of the world’s energy. Even within the context of energy transition, South America’s contribution will remain crucial for many years to come.
