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The United States’ show of force on the international stage is not the result of renewed economic strength, but rather the visible symptom of a growing structural weakness within its financial and monetary system.
Structural Weakness: Debt, Currency, and Financial Fragility
Washington is operating under the burden of a public debt that has reached barely sustainable levels, a structurally weakened dollar, and a financial system that functions largely on confidence and expectations rather than solid economic fundamentals.
Federal debt is approaching $38 trillion, with annual interest costs nearing $1.2 trillion. Inflation constrains the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates meaningfully, while the dollar shows increasing signs of long-term erosion.
Venezuela as a Financial and Geopolitical Instrument
Within this framework, Venezuela becomes strategically relevant—not because of its current economic output, which is unlikely to significantly affect oil prices in the short term, but because of what it represents prospectively.
The issue is not what Venezuela produces today, but what it symbolizes as a financial and geopolitical asset.
The Market Power of Anticipation
Even the signal of potential U.S. control or influence over one of the world’s largest oil reserves is sufficient to trigger immediate market reactions.
Major U.S. oil companies have recorded sharp stock-market gains, dragging with them firms involved in infrastructure reconstruction, security, and extraction services.
Finance moves on expectations. Venezuelan oil is already being priced in and transformed into financial value, despite the long technical timelines required to restore production capacity.
U.S. Economic Constraints and the Limits of Reindustrialization
This dynamic unfolds against a deeply constrained U.S. economic backdrop:
- Persistent trade deficits
- Limited industrial policy coherence
- Reindustrialization promises that remain largely unfulfilled
Technological innovation alone has not corrected structural imbalances, nor has it reduced dependence on external capital inflows.
Tariffs as Political Leverage
In this context, tariffs re-emerge not as effective economic tools, but as political and negotiating instruments.
Their function is twofold:
- Signalling strength to domestic voters
- Pressuring partners and allies to redirect trade and investment flows toward the United States
They do little, however, to address underlying structural vulnerabilities.
Financial Bubble Risks and Asset Inflation
The risk of a new financial bubble is increasingly evident, particularly in the valuations of technology giants such as Nvidia, now hovering around $5 trillion in market capitalization.
This bubble cannot be allowed to burst without triggering systemic consequences.
Strategy Under Constraint: Energy as Financial Leverage
With a weakened dollar, the ability to monetize public debt through monetary expansion is sharply limited. At the same time:
- China has largely stopped purchasing U.S. Treasuries
- Petro-monarchies are showing growing reluctance to finance U.S. deficits
What remains is the need to sustain asset inflation at all costs.
Energy Resources as a Strategic Priority
Control over energy resources therefore becomes central to U.S. strategy.
The United States maintains a dominant position in:
- Shale oil and shale gas
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports
Securing access to strategic energy regions is essential to preserving this advantage. This explains the focus on territories such as Venezuela and Greenland, whose relevance is financial as much as geopolitical.
Pressure on Europe: Energy and Arms Sales
Europe plays a pivotal role in this strategy.
On one side, the European Union is pushed—often under explicit pressure—to increase purchases of U.S. LNG, framed as a “safe” alternative to Russian supplies.
On the other, rising global instability has opened a vast market for the American defence industry. Arms sales to Europe:
- Support domestic industrial output
- Boost corporate profits
- Generate immediate positive effects on U.S. equity markets
Ukraine and Gaza as Bargaining Instruments
Donald Trump’s statements on Ukraine and Gaza fit squarely into this framework.
In Ukraine, questioning military support increases uncertainty and pressures European allies to raise defence spending—often by purchasing U.S. weapons.
Regarding Gaza, references to control or “securing” the territory serve to reassure markets about the stability of energy routes while demonstrating U.S. intervention capacity.
Regional Strategy in the Americas
The same logic applies to rhetoric concerning:
- Panama, framed as critical infrastructure to be removed from Chinese influence
- Mexico and Colombia, targeted with security and immigration pressure
- Cuba, maintained as a symbol of permanent geopolitical containment
These are not isolated cases, but elements of a broader strategy that uses instability, threat, and control to steer financial and commercial flows.
Military Force as a Financial Option
Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out the use of military force to secure areas deemed vital to U.S. national security, explicitly linking territorial control to competition with China and Russia.
The message to markets is consistent: the United States retains the capacity to guarantee—or disrupt—critical routes and resources.
The Venezuelan Paradox
Venezuela’s oil sector is currently incapable of delivering rapid production increases. Years of investment will be required before meaningful output returns.
Financially, however, the impact is immediate.
Announcing or even hinting at control over strategic regions inflates the market capitalization of energy companies and service providers. This dynamic has already played out in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Yemen.
Wall Street, Asset Managers, and Political Consensus
The primary beneficiaries of this strategy are major U.S. asset managers, which:
- Hold significant stakes in energy and defence companies
- Remain among the few actors willing to finance U.S. public debt
By managing pension funds and student-loan portfolios, they create a feedback loop where asset inflation translates into political support.
Big Tech, Security, and Strategic Finance
Big Tech firms increasingly fit into this model.
Initiatives such as temporary free access to satellite internet via Starlink are not merely humanitarian, but strategic investments that:
- Raise corporate valuations
- Cement roles within future military and security architectures
Traditional finance, energy, defence, and “alternative” tech-based finance are converging.
The China Factor
One decisive variable remains: China.
Beijing has built a substantial presence in Latin America through energy investments, trade routes, and agricultural substitution. For now, China is observing carefully. The real question is not if Beijing will react—but how long it will tolerate a U.S. strategy aimed at consolidating control over resources and global financial flows.
Clarissa Van Vuuren
Honorary President
