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An event that redraws the international balance of power
The capture of Nicolás Maduro by the United States represents far more than a turning point in the Venezuelan crisis.
It is an event of global political, legal and economic importance, capable of reshaping the international balance of power.
Within a matter of hours, a country already devastated by an unprecedented socio-economic crisis has plunged into a power vacuum that threatens to destabilise the whole of Latin America and to have repercussions far beyond the continent.
The arrest of the Venezuelan president, considered illegitimate and accused of crimes against humanity, corruption, drug trafficking and terrorism, has accelerated a process which was feared by many international observers, yet few expected to unfold in such a dramatic manner.
Venezuela: the struggle for power between institutions and the armed forces
With Nicolás Maduro out of the picture, Venezuela enters a phase of profound political uncertainty.
Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, also considered illegitimate, is attempting to ensure a semblance of institutional continuity, while the power system shows clear signs of instability.
The international community appears divided:
- on one hand, many countries see Maduro’s capture as the beginning of the end of an authoritarian regime;
- on the other, there are growing fears that the U.S. operation could trigger political chaos and internal conflict, even leading to the risk of an unconventional civil war.
Two possible scenarios for Venezuela’s future
1. Negotiated transition
An interim government, internationally supervised elections and a gradual easing of sanctions represent the most desirable scenario.
However, it remains fragile: a split within the armed forces could definitively compromise it.
2. Fragmentation and chaos
If the transition fails, Venezuela could sink into a slow disintegration of the state, with rival military factions, paramilitary groups and illicit trafficking competing for control of the territory.
The United States returns to prominence in Latin America
Maduro’s capture marks the return of the United States to the centre stage of Latin American politics, in a way which has not been seen in decades.
For some observers, it was necessary to put an end to a regime accused of systematic human rights violations and ties to terrorist groups and drug cartels.
For others, it is a serious violation of national sovereignty, setting a dangerous precedent in terms of international interventionism.
The operation is part of a broader strategy of geopolitical assertiveness by the Trump administration, which has reaffirmed a muscular vision of the U.S. role in the Western Hemisphere.
Statements regarding Colombia, Mexico, Greenland, the Panama Canal and Cuba convey a clear message:
Washington is claiming direct control in the region, relegating multilateral diplomacy as a second option.
A divided Latin America: allies, critics and diplomatic silence
The Latin American continent is now deeply divided.
- Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador and El Salvador support the U.S. action, viewing it as a step toward regional stability.
- Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia criticize the method, fearing a dangerous precedent.
- Cuba and Nicaragua defend Maduro, denouncing the intervention as an imperialist act.
Regional organisations appear paralysed:
- CELAC is unable to find common ground,
- the OAS is divided,
- MERCOSUR remains silent.
The Venezuelan diaspora: hope, fear and new migration
Since the era of Hugo Chávez, more than eight million Venezuelans have been forced to leave the country.
Maduro’s capture has rekindled hopes of a return but also very real fears.
A potential collapse of the State could generate new migration waves towards Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Chile, countries that are already under pressure.
Inside Venezuela, the population continues to live in fear:
despite the leader’s absence, the repressive and military apparatus remains largely intact, making the current phase extremely fragile.
Venezuelan oil and global energy geopolitics
Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, making the crisis a strategic energy issue as well.
Trump’s statements claiming that Venezuelan oil would be “the property of the United States” have reignited heated international debate.
Although there are historical disputes with U.S. companies, this does not legitimise claims on the country’s sovereign resources.
Two possible economic outcomes
1. Revival of production
Political stabilisation could attract Western investment and reintegrate Venezuela into global energy markets.
2. Economic conflict
Instability and violence could turn the country into a battleground for boycotts, lawsuits and sabotage of oil infrastructure.
International repercussions: law, politics and global security
The capture of a sitting Head of State by a foreign power is an extremely rare and destabilising event.
- Europe is divided between support for a transition and the fear of setting a precedent.
- Russia, China and Iran condemn the operation and threaten appropriate responses.
- The UN is under pressure, with calls for an urgent debate on the legitimacy of the intervention.
The Maduro case risks becoming a new front in global geopolitical conflict.
Venezuela at a crossroads: conclusion
The capture of Nicolás Maduro does not mark the end of a crisis but the beginning of an even more delicate phase.
Venezuela today stands at a historic crossroads, perhaps more fragile than other global theatres such as Ukraine, Gaza or Taiwan.
If the political transition is successful, the country could embark on a path towards democratic and economic renewal.
If not, the risk of prolonged chaos remains very real.
The unilateral intervention by the United States, lacking multilateral legitimacy, marks a clear break with the post-war international order.
If the use of force becomes the norm, diplomacy risks becoming marginalised, with potentially devastating consequences for global stability.
The coming months will be decisive in determining whether this turning point brings stability or a new escalation of international tension.
Giancarlo Castagnoli
President and CEO of the PROYTEC Group
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